TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a great business development story, but right now, that’s largely all the company has to offer. Only the most aggressive investors should be considering it at this point in the company’s development. Here’s why you might want to buy it in 2026 and why most investors will likely be better off keeping this stock on their watch list for now.
The Metals Company is looking to produce nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. These metals are vital for energy, defense, manufacturing, and infrastructure. There is both material demand and increasing interest from countries looking to source the metals from economically and politically stable regions. The Metals Company boldly claims that it is “unlocking the world’s largest undeveloped resource” of these metals.
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That’s a pretty good story and a potentially huge opportunity. If you like to get in early on things, buying The Metals Company in 2026 could be the right move for you. But there are very big risks to consider.
The first major risk to consider is the location of The Metals Company’s mining operation, which is underwater. It is hard enough to mine materials when no water is involved; undersea mining is even more difficult. In fact, it has been tried by others, and it didn’t work out for them. So there is a material risk that The Metals Company might be taking on more than it can chew.
TMC also hasn’t progressed very far in its development. That means that this money-losing start-up is likely to continue losing money for years to come, and it almost certainly won’t make a profit in 2026. In fact, it is unlikely to generate any revenue in 2026, as it continues to spend on the mine development process.
If you already own shares in The Metals Company, you presumably like the business story. You should probably stick around unless you have material losses you’d like to harvest for tax purposes. That said, the stock has been highly volatile, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon. And certainly not until the company’s mine is actually producing. Stick around only if you can handle the volatility.
In the end, most investors will probably be better off watching The Metals Company’s development from the sidelines. The company’s goal is audacious and carries significant execution risk. Until management has proven it can build and profitably operate an undersea mine, the risk/reward balance is heavily weighted toward risk.
