The world
woke up to a dramatically different geopolitical landscape on Monday, March 2,
2026. Gold surged nearly 2% to test $5,400 per ounce, its highest
level since January 30, while Brent crude spiked as much as 13% to $82
per barrel at the open, a 14-month high, as the United States and
Israel’s coordinated military strikes on Iran triggered the effective
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the
world’s daily oil supply passes.
The death
of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the opening day of
the offensive, combined with Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes across the
Gulf, sent investors flooding into safe-haven assets in one of the most
dramatic Monday market openings in years.
In this
article, I examine why gold price is going up alongside with oil, analyzing XAU/USD
and WTI technical charts.
Follow
me on X for more gold and oil market analysis: @ChmielDk
The strikes
began on Saturday, February 28, when President Donald Trump announced in a
video posted on Truth Social that the United States had launched coordinated
military operations against Iran alongside Israel. The scale was
extraordinary:
- The Israeli Air Force
struck over 500 military targets in western and central Iran
using approximately 200 fighter jets, the largest combat sortie in its
history - The US military deployed B-2
stealth bombers to strike fortified ballistic missile facilities - Over 1,200 bombs were deployed in the
first 24 hours - US and European officials
stated three core demands: permanent end to uranium enrichment,
strict limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, and a complete halt
to support for proxy groups
The
consequences were immediate and historic. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei was killed on the opening day of the offensive. Iran
retaliated with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles targeting US military
bases across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and
the UAE.
Iranian
ballistic missiles struck Dubai, with footage showing an impact at a five-star hotel on Palm Jumeirah,
a city that has become one of the world’s most important hubs for CFD brokers
and financial trading firms.
By Sunday
the conflict had escalated on multiple fronts. Hezbollah declared an
“official declaration of war”, launching projectiles from Lebanon
toward Haifa and Upper Galilee, while the Yemen-based Houthis announced
the resumption of Red Sea attacks. Iran’s response in the Strait of Hormuz
may prove the most consequential act for global markets: Tehran warned all
vessels that no ships would be permitted to transit the
waterway, and tanker tracking data showed traffic through the strait’s main
shipping lanes halted completely on March 1.
- At least 100 oil
tankers stopped near UAE and Oman coastlines - Two ships were attacked in the strait
- The Houthis’ Red Sea resumption
effectively shut a second critical maritime corridor simultaneously
CFD brokers
and prop firms raised margin requirements and leverage limits even before markets opened,
bracing for the volatility that followed.
Why Gold Price Is Surging?
XAU/USD Tests $5,400
The flow of
investors toward safe havens in the face of what happened over the weekend is,
according to my analysis, a completely natural market reaction. Gold opened
Monday nearly 2% higher, reaching $5,368-$5,390 per ounce, its
highest level since January 30, 2026, with US gold futures surging 2.58%
to $5,382.60.
In Indian
markets MCX gold jumped 3.5%, while silver surged
simultaneously,
with spot silver rising 1.68% to $95.35 per ounce, testing late
January levels. By the time of writing, silver’s gains were reduced to +0.3%
at $94, while gold held its advance more firmly near $5,362.
From the
perspective of my technical analysis, gold is now just a short distance from a
very important resistance zone. $5,430 is where price closed
at the end of January on the weekly chart, and I would expect a stronger
accumulation of sell orders there. However, current geopolitical tensions may
meaningfully shift the balance of forces, and this is not a normal technical
setup.
Why gold price is going up today. Source: Tradingview.com
The bigger
picture from my analysis is compelling: from the February lows, gold has now
recovered over 20%, and at current levels around $5,362 we are
already just a few percentage points from the all-time highs at $5,600.
If $5,430 breaks decisively, the path to retesting the January 28 high at
$5,415 and the January 29 record at $5,600 opens fully.
The longer-term
Fibonacci projections pointing to $6,100-$7,200, which I outlined earlier this year, would
then become the primary reference targets. On the downside, according to my
analysis gold has strong supports: the $5,000 psychological level and
then $4,850, where the 50 EMA creates a double support floor.
|
Level |
Type |
Significance |
|
$5,600 |
All-time high (Jan 29) |
Target if $5,430 breaks |
|
$5,430 |
Key resistance |
Author’s critical pivot |
|
$5,362-5,390 |
Monday open range |
+20% from Feb lows |
|
$5,000 |
Major support |
Psychological round number |
|
$4,850 |
Strong support |
Confluence with 50 EMA |
Dilin Wu,
Research Strategist at Pepperstone, captures the near-term uncertainty
precisely: “XAUUSD opened approximately 1.4% higher on Monday following
the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East, but buying pressure
proved limited thereafter. With the path of the regional conflict remaining
highly uncertain, short-term gold volatility has increased
significantly.”
Why Oil Is Surging 13%?
Strait of Hormuz Is the Story
The oil
market’s reaction was even more dramatic. At Monday’s open, Brent crude
surged 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, while WTI jumped up
to 12% from Friday’s close, which had itself been the highest since
August 2025. By the time of writing, a significant portion of that move has
been digested: WTI is now around $70-72 per barrel (+6.5%), and
Brent is holding around +4% in early trading. We remain, however, above last
summer’s peaks, which now serve as an important support level.
Jeff Mower
and S&P Global CERA analysts identified the core mechanism: “Oil
tanker traffic transiting the main shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was
halted on March 1. Even if production and terminals remain intact, higher
risk premiums, ship owner caution, and delayed shipping fixtures can reduce
delivered barrels, supporting higher risk premiums on March 2 opening until
maritime threats de-escalate.”
Why WTI oil price is going up today? Source: Tradingview.com
The Strait
of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil trade and
20% of global LNG. Its closure, even partial or temporary, represents a
supply shock with no quick fix. Key institutional forecasts for oil this
week:
|
Institution |
WTI/Brent Forecast |
Scenario |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$18/barrel risk premium |
Current disruption priced |
|
Wood Mackenzie |
$100+ per barrel |
If Hormuz stays closed |
|
Citi |
Brent $80-90 this week |
Primary scenario |
|
Citi |
Brent back to $70 |
If tensions ease rapidly |
|
Lipow Oil Associates |
1970s-style shock possible |
33% probability worst case |
Oil Technical Analysis:
Golden Cross Approaching
Beyond the
immediate war premium, my technical analysis of oil was already flagging a
significant structural signal before this weekend.
According
to my analysis, the 50 EMA is now approaching the 200 EMA from below,
close to completing what technicians call a “golden cross”,
historically one of the strongest buy signals in any market. The last time
these two averages crossed on the oil chart was July 2024, but in
the opposite direction. That death cross generated a powerful sell signal that
pushed WTI from approximately $80 per barrel all the way down to $55.
Now, my analysis shows the same mechanism appearing to reverse direction.
If the
golden cross completes, it would provide technical confirmation of a new
long-term uptrend in crude, layered on top of the geopolitical supply shock
already in play. That said, I want to be explicit: more important than
any technical signal will be geopolitics from here.
FAQ
Why is gold going up
today, March 2, 2026?
Gold surged
nearly 2% to $5,368-$5,390 per ounce on Monday, its highest since January 30,
after the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran on
Saturday, February 28. The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran’s retaliatory
strikes across Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq, the closure of the Strait
of Hormuz, and Hezbollah’s declaration of war triggered a classic safe-haven
flight.
Why is oil surging?
Brent crude
jumped 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, and WTI spiked up to 12% at
Monday’s open following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered the effective
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global daily
oil supply passes. Oil tanker traffic halted completely on March 1, with over
100 tankers stopped near UAE and Oman.
How high can gold go if
the Iran war escalates?
From
Monday’s $5,362-$5,390 level, according to my technical analysis the immediate
target is a break above $5,430 resistance, which would open
the path to retesting the $5,415 January 28 high and the $5,600
all-time high. A City Index analyst forecasts gold reaching $5,500
and potentially a new record above $5,600. My longer-term Fibonacci
projections point to $6,100-$7,200. Key downside supports remain at $5,000
(psychological) and $4,850 (50 EMA confluence).
What is the Strait of
Hormuz and why does it matter for oil prices?
The Strait
of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handling
approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil trade and 20% of global LNG
shipments. Iran’s coastline forms the strait’s northern edge, giving it the
ability to threaten or block transit. With 100+ tankers halted and two ships
already attacked, the disruption is real and immediate. Wood Mackenzie warns
of $100 oil if closure persists, Goldman Sachs has calculated
an $18/barrel real-time risk premium already priced in, and
CNBC analysts have raised the possibility of a 1970s-style energy shock if
the closure continues.
The world
woke up to a dramatically different geopolitical landscape on Monday, March 2,
2026. Gold surged nearly 2% to test $5,400 per ounce, its highest
level since January 30, while Brent crude spiked as much as 13% to $82
per barrel at the open, a 14-month high, as the United States and
Israel’s coordinated military strikes on Iran triggered the effective
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the
world’s daily oil supply passes.
The death
of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the opening day of
the offensive, combined with Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes across the
Gulf, sent investors flooding into safe-haven assets in one of the most
dramatic Monday market openings in years.
In this
article, I examine why gold price is going up alongside with oil, analyzing XAU/USD
and WTI technical charts.
Follow
me on X for more gold and oil market analysis: @ChmielDk
The strikes
began on Saturday, February 28, when President Donald Trump announced in a
video posted on Truth Social that the United States had launched coordinated
military operations against Iran alongside Israel. The scale was
extraordinary:
- The Israeli Air Force
struck over 500 military targets in western and central Iran
using approximately 200 fighter jets, the largest combat sortie in its
history - The US military deployed B-2
stealth bombers to strike fortified ballistic missile facilities - Over 1,200 bombs were deployed in the
first 24 hours - US and European officials
stated three core demands: permanent end to uranium enrichment,
strict limits on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, and a complete halt
to support for proxy groups
The
consequences were immediate and historic. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei was killed on the opening day of the offensive. Iran
retaliated with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles targeting US military
bases across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and
the UAE.
Iranian
ballistic missiles struck Dubai, with footage showing an impact at a five-star hotel on Palm Jumeirah,
a city that has become one of the world’s most important hubs for CFD brokers
and financial trading firms.
By Sunday
the conflict had escalated on multiple fronts. Hezbollah declared an
“official declaration of war”, launching projectiles from Lebanon
toward Haifa and Upper Galilee, while the Yemen-based Houthis announced
the resumption of Red Sea attacks. Iran’s response in the Strait of Hormuz
may prove the most consequential act for global markets: Tehran warned all
vessels that no ships would be permitted to transit the
waterway, and tanker tracking data showed traffic through the strait’s main
shipping lanes halted completely on March 1.
- At least 100 oil
tankers stopped near UAE and Oman coastlines - Two ships were attacked in the strait
- The Houthis’ Red Sea resumption
effectively shut a second critical maritime corridor simultaneously
CFD brokers
and prop firms raised margin requirements and leverage limits even before markets opened,
bracing for the volatility that followed.
Why Gold Price Is Surging?
XAU/USD Tests $5,400
The flow of
investors toward safe havens in the face of what happened over the weekend is,
according to my analysis, a completely natural market reaction. Gold opened
Monday nearly 2% higher, reaching $5,368-$5,390 per ounce, its
highest level since January 30, 2026, with US gold futures surging 2.58%
to $5,382.60.
In Indian
markets MCX gold jumped 3.5%, while silver surged
simultaneously,
with spot silver rising 1.68% to $95.35 per ounce, testing late
January levels. By the time of writing, silver’s gains were reduced to +0.3%
at $94, while gold held its advance more firmly near $5,362.
From the
perspective of my technical analysis, gold is now just a short distance from a
very important resistance zone. $5,430 is where price closed
at the end of January on the weekly chart, and I would expect a stronger
accumulation of sell orders there. However, current geopolitical tensions may
meaningfully shift the balance of forces, and this is not a normal technical
setup.
Why gold price is going up today. Source: Tradingview.com
The bigger
picture from my analysis is compelling: from the February lows, gold has now
recovered over 20%, and at current levels around $5,362 we are
already just a few percentage points from the all-time highs at $5,600.
If $5,430 breaks decisively, the path to retesting the January 28 high at
$5,415 and the January 29 record at $5,600 opens fully.
The longer-term
Fibonacci projections pointing to $6,100-$7,200, which I outlined earlier this year, would
then become the primary reference targets. On the downside, according to my
analysis gold has strong supports: the $5,000 psychological level and
then $4,850, where the 50 EMA creates a double support floor.
|
Level |
Type |
Significance |
|
$5,600 |
All-time high (Jan 29) |
Target if $5,430 breaks |
|
$5,430 |
Key resistance |
Author’s critical pivot |
|
$5,362-5,390 |
Monday open range |
+20% from Feb lows |
|
$5,000 |
Major support |
Psychological round number |
|
$4,850 |
Strong support |
Confluence with 50 EMA |
Dilin Wu,
Research Strategist at Pepperstone, captures the near-term uncertainty
precisely: “XAUUSD opened approximately 1.4% higher on Monday following
the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East, but buying pressure
proved limited thereafter. With the path of the regional conflict remaining
highly uncertain, short-term gold volatility has increased
significantly.”
Why Oil Is Surging 13%?
Strait of Hormuz Is the Story
The oil
market’s reaction was even more dramatic. At Monday’s open, Brent crude
surged 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, while WTI jumped up
to 12% from Friday’s close, which had itself been the highest since
August 2025. By the time of writing, a significant portion of that move has
been digested: WTI is now around $70-72 per barrel (+6.5%), and
Brent is holding around +4% in early trading. We remain, however, above last
summer’s peaks, which now serve as an important support level.
Jeff Mower
and S&P Global CERA analysts identified the core mechanism: “Oil
tanker traffic transiting the main shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was
halted on March 1. Even if production and terminals remain intact, higher
risk premiums, ship owner caution, and delayed shipping fixtures can reduce
delivered barrels, supporting higher risk premiums on March 2 opening until
maritime threats de-escalate.”
Why WTI oil price is going up today? Source: Tradingview.com
The Strait
of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil trade and
20% of global LNG. Its closure, even partial or temporary, represents a
supply shock with no quick fix. Key institutional forecasts for oil this
week:
|
Institution |
WTI/Brent Forecast |
Scenario |
|
Goldman Sachs |
$18/barrel risk premium |
Current disruption priced |
|
Wood Mackenzie |
$100+ per barrel |
If Hormuz stays closed |
|
Citi |
Brent $80-90 this week |
Primary scenario |
|
Citi |
Brent back to $70 |
If tensions ease rapidly |
|
Lipow Oil Associates |
1970s-style shock possible |
33% probability worst case |
Oil Technical Analysis:
Golden Cross Approaching
Beyond the
immediate war premium, my technical analysis of oil was already flagging a
significant structural signal before this weekend.
According
to my analysis, the 50 EMA is now approaching the 200 EMA from below,
close to completing what technicians call a “golden cross”,
historically one of the strongest buy signals in any market. The last time
these two averages crossed on the oil chart was July 2024, but in
the opposite direction. That death cross generated a powerful sell signal that
pushed WTI from approximately $80 per barrel all the way down to $55.
Now, my analysis shows the same mechanism appearing to reverse direction.
If the
golden cross completes, it would provide technical confirmation of a new
long-term uptrend in crude, layered on top of the geopolitical supply shock
already in play. That said, I want to be explicit: more important than
any technical signal will be geopolitics from here.
FAQ
Why is gold going up
today, March 2, 2026?
Gold surged
nearly 2% to $5,368-$5,390 per ounce on Monday, its highest since January 30,
after the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran on
Saturday, February 28. The death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, Iran’s retaliatory
strikes across Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq, the closure of the Strait
of Hormuz, and Hezbollah’s declaration of war triggered a classic safe-haven
flight.
Why is oil surging?
Brent crude
jumped 13% to $82 per barrel, a 14-month high, and WTI spiked up to 12% at
Monday’s open following US-Israeli strikes on Iran that triggered the effective
closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global daily
oil supply passes. Oil tanker traffic halted completely on March 1, with over
100 tankers stopped near UAE and Oman.
How high can gold go if
the Iran war escalates?
From
Monday’s $5,362-$5,390 level, according to my technical analysis the immediate
target is a break above $5,430 resistance, which would open
the path to retesting the $5,415 January 28 high and the $5,600
all-time high. A City Index analyst forecasts gold reaching $5,500
and potentially a new record above $5,600. My longer-term Fibonacci
projections point to $6,100-$7,200. Key downside supports remain at $5,000
(psychological) and $4,850 (50 EMA confluence).
What is the Strait of
Hormuz and why does it matter for oil prices?
The Strait
of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handling
approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil trade and 20% of global LNG
shipments. Iran’s coastline forms the strait’s northern edge, giving it the
ability to threaten or block transit. With 100+ tankers halted and two ships
already attacked, the disruption is real and immediate. Wood Mackenzie warns
of $100 oil if closure persists, Goldman Sachs has calculated
an $18/barrel real-time risk premium already priced in, and
CNBC analysts have raised the possibility of a 1970s-style energy shock if
the closure continues.
