China has set its economic growth target for the current year at the lowest seen since 1991, allowing room for structural adjustments amid heightened global uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
In the opening session of the National People’s Congress on Thursday, Premier Li Qiang said the economy is expected to grow 4.5-5 percent in 2026.
The government had targeted “around 5 percent” growth since 2023. Beijing achieved its 5 percent growth target in 2025.
The new growth target strives to achieve better results in practice as it is intended to strike a balance between what is needed and what is feasible, Shen Danyang, head of the group responsible for drafting this year’s government work report reportedly said.
Although the slight softening of growth target suggests that growth stability remains important, steady fiscal targets are signaling a reluctance to lean too heavily on fresh stimulus to bolster growth, ING economist Lynn Song said.
Consumer price inflation is seen at “around 2 percent” in 2026, which was unchanged from the last year.
Amid global trade uncertainty and the conflict in the Middle East, the second largest economy also faces complex domestic challenges like industrial overcapacity, rapidly aging population, weaker consumption and property market downturn.
The draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030 focused on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, strengthening domestic economy, promotes common prosperity and coordinates development and security.
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