Forget Tech Stocks. If Oil Goes to $100 These Energy Plays Are Unstoppable

• iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) up 25.95% year-to-date. EOG Resources (EOG) up 22.9%. Devon Energy (DVN) merging with Coterra, target $49.37. Energy Transfer (ET) 7% yield. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) down 0.58% year-to-date.

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death injected supply-risk premium into oil markets, with WTI crude surging 10.3% to $71.13 as tech stocks stalled.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

AI-driven tech stocks have dominated financial headlines for months, capturing the imagination of retail and institutional investors alike. But here’s what you should actually be watching.

The geopolitical calculus just shifted. The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 has injected serious supply-risk premium back into oil markets. WTI crude has surged 10.3% in the past month, reaching $71.13 per barrel — its highest percentile rank in the 12-month range at 96.4. A move toward $100 is no longer a fringe scenario. When it happens, the energy names nobody is talking about will be the ones that matter.

Meanwhile, tech is quietly losing ground. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is down 0.58% year-to-date and off 2.46% over the past month. The AI hype cycle has stretched valuations to levels that demand perfection — and perfection is a fragile thesis. Energy, by contrast, is a crowded-short trade sitting on a geopolitical powder keg. Here are three places to position.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

EOG is the cleanest pure-play bet on higher crude. The company operates with a trailing P/E of just 14x and cash operating costs of $10.09 per Boe — one of the leanest cost structures in U.S. E&P. Consider the math in reverse: EOG’s realized crude price was $59.54 per barrel in Q4 2025, down from $71.66 in Q4 2024. At $100 oil, the margin expansion would be dramatic. EOG has beaten analyst estimates in every quarter of 2025, including a Q3 2025 surprise of over 10%. Proved reserves grew to 5,514 MMBoe at year-end 2025, and free cash flow for FY 2025 came in at $4.663 billion. The stock is up 22.9% year-to-date and still trades at a discount to what $100 oil implies for earnings.

DVN’s story isn’t just about oil prices — it’s about transformation. Devon’s all-stock merger with Coterra Energy, announced February 2, 2026, targets $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies and is expected to close in Q2 2026. Post-merger, the quarterly dividend rises 31% to $0.315 per share with a new $5 billion-plus share repurchase authorization. The free cash flow story is already compelling: FY 2025 free cash flow reached $3.119 billion. And DVN’s dividend history makes the $100 oil thesis visceral — when crude spiked above $100 in 2022, Devon paid $1.55 per share in Q3 alone, versus $0.24 today. Mizuho reaffirmed Outperform after the Q4 print, and the consensus analyst target sits at $49.37 against a current price near $43.

For retirement-focused investors who want yield regardless of where oil settles, Energy Transfer is the answer. ET’s fee-based midstream model insulates it from direct commodity swings, while volume growth drives EBITDA. Management raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $17.45–$17.85 billion, and the partnership is building out natural gas infrastructure to supply approximately 900 MMcf/d to three Oracle data centers under a 20-year agreement. The distribution yield sits at approximately 7%, backed by unbroken quarterly payments rising steadily from $0.1525 in 2021 to $0.335 most recently. Jefferies has a price target of $20 on a stock trading near $18.76.

If single-stock selection isn’t your preference, IEO — the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF — offers pure-play U.S. energy exposure at an expense ratio of 0.38%, with EOG and DVN among its top holdings. The ETF is up 25.95% year-to-date — while QQQ is flat.

Tech had its moment. Energy has the catalyst, the valuation support, and the geopolitical tailwind. Add exposure to at least one of these names before the crowd figures it out.

Wall Street is pouring billions into AI, but most investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buy back in 2010 — before its 28,000% run — has just pinpointed 10 new AI companies he believes could deliver outsized returns from here. One dominates a $100 billion equipment market. Another is solving the single biggest bottleneck holding back AI data centers. A third is a pure-play on an optical networking market set to quadruple. Most investors haven’t heard of half these names. Get the free list of all 10 stocks here.