February’s U.S. CPI report — released this morning (March 11) — came in exactly as expected. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, printed 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, both matching consensus forecasts. The immediate market reaction was relatively muted — the U.S. Dollar Index edged slightly higher, while equities slumped later in the session as Treasury yields pushed higher. Markets appear to be looking through this “pre-Iran conflict” snapshot and positioning for what elevated oil prices could mean for the March CPI print.
That macro backdrop — an in-line inflation print, a Fed almost certain to hold rates steady at the March 17–18 FOMC meeting, and a complex geopolitical overhang — is precisely what makes USD/CHF an interesting pair to watch right now, and the one we’re advancing from watchlist to strategy development this week.
