The current setup for silver (XAGUSD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a classic example of a high-risk, high-reward coiled spring. Following a parabolic run in late 2025 that saw silver prices breach the $100 level for the first time in history, the metal underwent a violent correction to the $67 range early this year.
This move effectively shook out the “froth” and created a reset for silver stocks. Now, silver is setting up for a big follow-on move. But will it be up or down? Let’s study the charts, and then examine the bull and bear cases.
I’ll start with SLV, which owns silver metal, before moving on to GX Silver Miners ETF (SIL), which owns silver mining stocks. SLV’s daily chart, shown above, has something going for it that belies the very non-committal PPO indicator at bottom. Specifically, it is making higher highs and higher lows. That has been the case for about a month now. That is a building block for a bigger rally.
However, that rally is likely to be as short-lived as the one that lifted SLV to a record high. Because the weekly chart, shown above, is indicating a toppy pattern. Now I am looking at the PPO — and I don’t like the looks of it one bit.
Translation: SLV has trade potential, but I am not even considering a buy-and-hold here.
Now let’s take a look at SIL. The daily shows a fainter pattern in terms of higher lows and higher highs. However, it has already broken down, as the 20-day moving average indicates.
If it sounds strange that SLV looks somewhat tradeable, but SIL looks rough, it should not. Mining stocks sometimes follow the commodity, but can also revert to the market thinking of them as stocks, not a closet way to own that commodity. I think that’s the most likely path here.
The bull case for a renewed silver rally is anchored by persistent structural deficit and a unique geopolitical tailwind. For the sixth consecutive year, the silver market is projected to be in a supply-off, with a shortfall of roughly 67 million ounces in 2026. This deficit is being exacerbated by military demand for high-end electronics and a massive expansion in solar infrastructure. That is turning silver into a 24-hour baseline power component via battery storage.
