MicroStrategy Is Down 56.9% YTD, Yet Still Buying Bitcoin by the Billions

A popular Reddit investment, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has lost 56.9% of its value, recently trading near $138, yet continues to buy bitcoin at a pace that has made it the largest U.S. equity issuer for two consecutive years. Reddit’s composite sentiment score sits at 28 out of 100, firmly bearish, with debate concentrated in derivatives communities. The central question: can the company’s “BTC Yield” metric, which measures bitcoin per-diluted-share growth, outpace the dilution required to generate it?

Strategy’s FY2025 BTC Yield came in at 22.8%, meaning each share represents more bitcoin than a year ago, however, the company’s own target was 30%. More importantly, the firm raised $25.3 billion in capital during 2025 and now holds 713,502 BTC. The cost: a 52.6% expansion in share count in 2025 alone, from roughly 192.5 million to nearly 294 million shares, all while Q4 produced a $12.44 billion net loss driven by a $17.44 billion unrealized loss on digital assets as bitcoin prices fell late in the year.

All three Reddit sentiment data points captured over the past 72 hours show bearish scores between 28 and 30, with 100% of qualified mentions originating in r/options rather than long-term investing forums. Peak activity hit Monday evening at 9 PM ET, generating 60 comments in a single hour. One r/options thread titled “2026 leaps” had users listing Strategy puts on their watchlist. One commenter wrote: “MSTR $120 Dec 26 PUT… these are on my watchlist.”

This infographic details MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings and financial performance, alongside a bearish Reddit social sentiment score driven by recent losses, share dilution, and derivatives activity.

2026 leaps
by u/deleted in r/options

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The bearish case rests on three concerns:

• Authorized shares raised to 10.33 billion Class A shares, giving management near-unlimited capacity to dilute common holders.

• Perpetual preferred obligations rank above common equity, and the STRC preferred has grown to $3.4 billion, with its variable rate now at 11.25%, up from 9% earlier in the year. Each increase raises the hurdle BTC Yield must clear to benefit common shareholders.

• Bitcoin is down 19.7% year-to-date to near $70,218, while Polymarket traders assign only a 30% probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, the threshold Strategy needs for its leveraged model to generate meaningful gains.

CEO Phong Le noted in the Q4 filing: “Our variable dividend rate mechanism for STRC, currently set at 11.25%, has helped maintain STRC price stability near the $100 stated amount despite a weaker bitcoin price environment.” The USD reserve stands at $2.25 billion, covering roughly 2.5 years of preferred dividends and interest on debt, without a bitcoin sale. Polymarket puts the probability of a margin call in 2026 at just 8%, and the odds of any bitcoin being sold by year-end at 13%. Despite a bearish tone on Reddit, 13 of 14 covering analysts rate the strategy a buy, with a consensus target near $332.67.

Investors will keep a close eye on Strategy’s next earnings report to see whether BTC Yield can recover toward the 30% target after missing in 2025. With bitcoin down nearly 20% year-to-date and the STRC dividend rate rising, the per-share BTC Yield calculation faces a steeper climb. Prediction markets give roughly a 95% probability that Strategy will reach 800,000 BTC by year-end. Whether that accumulation translates into per-share value for common holders, rather than flowing to preferred holders and new dilutive issuances, is the bet r/options traders are making.

Data Sources:

• Strategy Q4 2025 earnings filing (February 5, 2026): EPS, revenue, BTC holdings, capital raises, preferred dividend progression, and CEO commentary.

• Fuse API Reddit sentiment data: Sentiment scores, activity scores, and subreddit breakdown for the 72-hour window ending March 24, 2026.

• Fuse API and Polymarket prediction markets: Probabilities for bitcoin price targets, margin call risk, and bitcoin sale likelihood.

• Alpha Vantage balance sheet data: Share count expansion and equity dilution metrics across 2023 to 2025.

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