NEW YORK (AP) — A cautious relief swept through financial markets Monday after President Donald Trump said the United States has talked with Iran about a possible end to their war. Oil prices eased, and stock prices rose on Wall Street following severe losses taken elsewhere in the world before Trump’s announcement.
The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 10.9% to settle at $99.94, down from nearly $120 at one point last week, after Trump said the United States and Iran held productive talks the last two days “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% for its best day since the war began.
The market’s moves were tentative, though, after Iran denied such talks took place and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said that “fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets” in a posting on X. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a surge of nearly 1,135 points during the morning to a more modest gain of 540 before accelerating to finish with a climb of 631.
Over the weekend, Trump had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. The narrow waterway off Iran’s coast has become a sore point for Trump and the economy because a sharp slowdown in traffic is preventing oil tankers from leaving the Persian Gulf to supply customers around the world.
Trump said Monday that he is postponing attacks on Iranian power plants for five days to allow talks to continue. Quickly afterward, though, came the denials from Iran about talks, while Iran’s semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies portrayed the American president as backing down.
Turkey and Egypt, meanwhile, said they had spoken to the warring parties, the first sign of coordinated mediation, which could be an encouraging signal.
Amid all the developments, the price of Brent crude fell as low as $96 immediately after Trump announced the postponement but quickly recovered a chunk of that loss. Benchmark U.S. crude had a similar reaction, immediately dropping toward $84 per barrel before yo-yoing back above $92 and then settling at $88.13, down 10.3% from Friday.
Financial markets have had vicious swings, both up and down, since the war began because of uncertainty about how long it may last. The fear is that a long-term disruption could keep so much oil and natural gas off global markets that it creates a punishing wave of inflation for the global economy.
The swings of the past few weeks are similar to, but not as dramatic as, those that hit last year when Trump shocked the global economy on “Liberation Day.” Many of his worldwide tariffs ended up being milder than he initially threatened, and the back-and-forth in negotiations led to historic moves up and down.
