Building a solid nest egg can, and should, help you retire with confidence. But it’s not enough to save for retirement. You also need to come up with a smart withdrawal strategy once you’re ready to start tapping your IRA or 401(k).
The 4% rule has long been popular in that context. It has you withdrawing 4% of your savings during your first year of retirement and adjusting future withdrawals for inflation. If you stick to this plan, there’s a good chance your savings will last for 30 years.
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But there’s a major problem with the 4% rule that could put you at risk of running out of money prematurely. And it’s something all retirees should take into account.
One of the biggest flaws associated with the 4% rule is that it doesn’t instruct savers to adjust their withdrawals downward when the market is down. That’s a major oversight.
If you continue withdrawing from your retirement savings at the same rate during a market downturn, you may be forced to sell investments at a loss to generate income. And once those losses are locked in, that money is gone. That portion of your portfolio can’t recover once the market stabilizes.
Now to be fair, the 4% rule has been tested against historical market data. So it does account for periods of volatility, which include downturns. But the fact that it doesn’t suggest adjusting withdrawals to account for market declines is a problem.
The 4% rule isn’t a terrible strategy for managing a retirement nest egg. But it has other problems aside from the aforementioned issue. It assumes pretty linear spending throughout retirement, and it makes certain assumptions about how people’s portfolios are invested.
For this reason, you may want to use the 4% rule as a starting point for withdrawals, but maintain a more flexible approach to tapping your nest egg. During periods when the market is generating stronger returns, by all means, withdraw 4%. But when the market is down, aim to reduce spending and adjust your withdrawals downward to avoid locking in losses.
Of course, it’s also a good idea to maintain a cash buffer you can tap so that during a prolonged market downturn, you’re able to leave your savings untouched. That, combined with a more adaptable withdrawal strategy, could be your ticket to making your nest egg last as long as you need it to.
